A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
